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Monday, April 6, 2020

Random Followers

Imagine this world - the world without Bayesian probability. Everything happens and nothing is dependent. Chaos and the Spirit of God hovering over it. And then God said: let there be Bayesian probability. And things happened because of others (B|A). And then other things because of others (C|(B|A)) and so it went, centuries of centuries until no one could distinguish C as a posterior probability of B and A, and it all looked like [Z1,Z2...Zn] as a posterior of all the previous letters of the alphabet filling in the random chaos bit by bit. And it's so messy that it could even very likely look like C234 as a consequence of D123. And then, occasionally, some creature of this doubtful randomness appears and says that the world is random, when in reality it's composed of an impossibly large number of random (and distracted) followers of the initial state [insert a small-scale picture of an infinite chaos at this point to create more focused followers].